TYPE OF COURSE UNIT	Elective Course
LEVEL OF COURSE UNIT	Bachelor's Degree
YEAR OF STUDY	-
SEMESTER	-
NUMBER OF ECTS CREDITS ALLOCATED	5
NAME OF LECTURER(S)	Assistant Professor Mehmet Gülşen
LEARNING OUTCOMES OF THE COURSE UNIT	At the end of this course, the students; 1) Develop fundamental data analysis skills within the context of forecasting model development. 2) Identify and classify methods and models used in business forecasting 3) Have exposure to computer programs used for forecasting. 4) Gain an ability to discuss results and propose recommendations based on forecasting results. 5) Formally present business forecast solutions
MODE OF DELIVERY	Face to face
PRE-REQUISITES OF THE COURSE	No
RECOMMENDED OPTIONAL PROGRAMME COMPONENT	None
COURSE DEFINITION	Importance of forecasting in decision making process. Quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques. Time series analysis, moving averages and exponential smoothing. Other forecasting techniques.
COURSE CONTENTS	WEEK TOPICS 1st Week Role of forecasting in decision making. What is forecasting? 2nd Week Review of statistical concepts 3rd Week Data collection and analysis. Data Patterns 4th Week Forecast evaluation techniques 5th Week Moving Averages 6th Week Exponential Smoothing 7th Week Exponential smoothing with trend and seasonality 8th Week Simple linear regression model 9th Week Midterm 10th Week Multi-variable regression models 11th Week Time series analysis 12th Week Box-Jenkins ARIMA models 13th Week ARIMA Model Verifications 14th Week Combining Forecasts
RECOMENDED OR REQUIRED READING	Business Forecasting (9th Edition), John E. Hanke, Dean Wichern, Prentice Hall; 9 edition (2009) Forecasting: Methods and Applications, Spyros Makridakis, Steven C. Wheelwright, Rob J. Hyndman, Wiley; 3 edition (December 1997)
PLANNED LEARNING ACTIVITIES AND TEACHING METHODS	Lecture,Case Study,Presentation,Problem Solving,Discussion,Project,Questions/Answers,Report Preparation
ASSESSMENT METHODS AND CRITERIA	Quantity Percentage(%) Mid-term 1 25 Quiz 1 15 Project 1 20 Attendance 1 5 Total(%) 65 Contribution of In-term Studies to Overall Grade(%) 65 Contribution of Final Examination to Overall Grade(%) 35 Total(%) 100
ECTS WORKLOAD	Activities Number Hours Workload Midterm exam 1 2 2 Preparation for Quiz 1 4 4 Individual or group work 14 2 28 Preparation for Final exam 1 25 25 Course hours 14 3 42 Preparation for Midterm exam 1 25 25 Laboratory (including preparation) Final exam 1 2 2 Homework 1 8 8 Total Workload 136 Total Workload / 30 4,53 ECTS Credits of the Course 5
LANGUAGE OF INSTRUCTION	Turkish
WORK PLACEMENT(S)	No